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Mistermix captions the above video:
[I]t turns out that Ron Paul has another reason to be smiling ever time he announces that he “lost” a straw poll. His supporters are being elected as delegates in bigger numbers than the straw poll totals indicate.
It works like this: Romney, Santorum and Gingrich supporters vote in the straw poll, then leave. Paul supporters vote in the poll and stay around for the county business meeting to be elected delegates. Because those delegates are completely loyal to Paul, not to the straw poll results, Paul, not Romney, Gingrich or Santorum, might actually be winning the caucuses. So, who the hell knows how many delegates any Republican has at this point.
Paul has a very organized campaign. His people know what they’re doing. They aren’t messing around. The media may not take Paul seriously, but Paul and his people are deadly serious, whether or not Paul actually thinks he can win.
If he takes enough delegates, it’s going to be a really interesting nomination this year. I have no doubt that Santorum or Gingrich will eventually come around and support Romney if push comes to shove. But Paul’s supporters are another bunch entirely.
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{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }
n.b. Intrade is predicting a 19% chance of a brokered convention.
That’s pretty remarkable. The likelihood in 2008 must have been much lower.
They’re generally required to vote for whom the state tells them to on the first ballot.
And in order to make any sort of hypothetical impact in a brokered convention scenario, they’re going to have to make up a majority(which almost certainly isn’t going to happen).
InTrade doesn’t always get things right.
If Ron Paul’s strategy is even remotely feasible, then that says worse about the entire primary process than it does about him.
Most certainly. You have to play it to win.